ADP reports U.S. private payrolls declined by 32,000 in November, led by losses at small businesses.
• ADP reported private payrolls fell 32,000 in November • Small businesses drove the losses, shedding about 120,000 jobs • Economists urge caution; ADP can diverge from official BLS data
ADP/Payroll-processor perspective: ADP presents an early monthly snapshot showing a surprising decline and highlights small-business weakness. Economists’ perspective: Many economists caution that ADP’s estimate can diverge from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official counts and urge waiting for the BLS release for confirmation. Policy/market perspective: Policymakers and markets may view the ADP reading as a signal of cooling that could affect interest-rate expectations, but most analysts treat it as one of several indicators rather than definitive proof of broad labor-market deterioration.
ADP’s monthly report showed U.S. private payrolls decreased by 32,000 in November, the largest monthly drop since March 2023; ADP also revised October to a 47,000 gain and reported that small establishments accounted for much of the weakness, shedding about 120,000 jobs while medium and large firms added jobs. [1][2][5] Economists cautioned against reading the ADP print as definitive because the ADP series has diverged from the Labor Department’s official measures in the past and the government’s official employment data were delayed by a recent shutdown, complicating comparisons; ADP’s findings have nevertheless drawn attention because they could influence market expectations and policymakers ahead of Federal Reserve decisions. [2][4] Taken together, the ADP report signals notable soft spots—especially among small businesses and in certain industries—but many analysts say it should be treated as an early indicator rather than a conclusive portrait of the labor market, so markets and policymakers will watch upcoming official data for confirmation. [1][2][5]